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Marino de Luanco vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
9/22/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Marino de Luanco50%
×Draw26%
Melilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.48
Melilla
0.93

Marino de Luanco creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.04
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.73
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
76%
Marino de Luanco or Melilla
74%
Draw or Melilla
50%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
25%
Melilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
77%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
43%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
19%
Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Melilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
68%
Melilla (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Melilla attack 1.14 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
50%
level
26%
Melilla scores more
24%

Marino de Luanco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Melilla

Marino de Luanco and Melilla drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.