Marino de Luanco 0–0 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Marino de Luanco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Las Rozas

2/16/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Marino de Luanco40%

×Draw31%

Las Rozas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.86

Marino de Luanco

1.06

Las Rozas

0.86

Marino de Luanco creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

1.04

creates per match

1.00

0.73

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

1.04

Las Rozas

1.00

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.73

Las Rozas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Las Rozas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

71%

Marino de Luanco or Las Rozas

69%

Draw or Las Rozas

60%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

16%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

65%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

29%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

9%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

58%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

21%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

58%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

40%

level

31%

Las Rozas scores more

29%

Marino de Luanco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Borja Álvarez← Iván Fernández

46'

Albur← B. Reyna

59'

C. Mboup← César Suárez

71'

Calleja← David Barca

83'

Álvaro Portero← J. Victoria

85'

Álex Boedo← Mendi

Marino

Las

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Oli

46'▲Borja Álvarez←▼Iván Fernández

59'▲C. Mboup←▼César Suárez

85'▲Álex Boedo←▼Mendi

Marino de Luanco substitutes

ÁlvarezMboupBoedoGranaMatheBustoPérez

Manager: Lolo Escobar

46'▲Albur←▼B. Reyna

71'▲Calleja←▼David Barca

83'▲Álvaro Portero←▼J. Victoria

Las Rozas substitutes

AlburCallejaPorteroCedenillaAndrésCruzPinto