Marino de Luanco 1–1 Celta de Vigo II

Marino de Luanco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

2/2/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Marino de Luanco39%

×Draw29%

Celta de Vigo II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.03

Marino de Luanco

1.17

Celta de Vigo II

1.03

Marino de Luanco creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 120 away

1.04

creates per match

1.33

0.73

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

1.04

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.73

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

68%

Marino de Luanco or Celta de Vigo II

71%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

61%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

16%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

69%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

33%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

11%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

64%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

28%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

55%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

39%

level

29%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

32%

Marino de Luanco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff