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Marinhense vs União de Leiria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Marinhense
Marinhense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo da Portela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Marinhense21%
×Draw23%
União de Leiria57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marinhense
1.01
União de Leiria
1.84

União de Leiria creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Marinhense
1.33
União de Leiria
2.85

allows per match

Marinhense
0.83
União de Leiria
0.69

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw
43%
Marinhense or União de Leiria
77%
Draw or União de Leiria
79%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+
7%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals
64%
Marinhense 2+ goals
27%
Marinhense 3+ goals
8%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
84%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
55%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)
27%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 1.33 + União de Leiria defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

União de Leiria attack 2.85 + Marinhense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Marinhense scores more
21%
level
23%
União de Leiria scores more
57%

União de Leiria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marinhense vs União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Marinhense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo da Portela in Marinha Grande.