Marinhense 1–0 Sertanense: Result & Stats

Marinhense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sertanense

3/14/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 20Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Marinhense50%

×Draw26%

Sertanense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinhenseExpected goals in this matchSertanense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.92

Marinhense

1.47

Sertanense

0.92

Marinhense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.20

0.64

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Marinhense

1.64

Sertanense

1.20

allows per match

Marinhense

0.64

Sertanense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par

Sertanense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Sertanense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw

76%

Marinhense or Sertanense

74%

Draw or Sertanense

50%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+

25%

Sertanense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals

77%

Marinhense 2+ goals

43%

Marinhense 3+ goals

18%

Sertanense 1+ goals

60%

Sertanense 2+ goals

23%

Sertanense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)

68%

Sertanense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Sertanense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 1.64 + Sertanense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sertanense attack 1.20 + Marinhense defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marinhense scores more

50%

level

26%

Sertanense scores more

24%

Marinhense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff