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Marinhense vs Fátima — League #459 2026

Marinhense
Marinhense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fátima
Fátima
A. Undonque 39'
R. Gomes 34'
T. Silva 90+4'
1/25/2026League #459League #459 · Group C - 16Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Marinhense40%
×Draw31%
Fátima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marinhense
1.10
Fátima
0.90

Marinhense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Marinhense
1.20
Fátima
0.80

allows per match

Marinhense
1.00
Fátima
1.00

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par
Fátima+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Fátima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw
71%
Marinhense or Fátima
69%
Draw or Fátima
60%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+
16%
Fátima wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals
67%
Marinhense 2+ goals
30%
Marinhense 3+ goals
10%
Fátima 1+ goals
59%
Fátima 2+ goals
23%
Fátima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)
58%
Fátima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Fátima away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 1.20 + Fátima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fátima attack 0.80 + Marinhense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marinhense scores more
40%
level
31%
Fátima scores more
29%

Marinhense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
R. Gomes
39'
A. Undonque
90+4'
T. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marinhense vs Fátima

Marinhense beat Fátima 2-1 in League #459 on January 25, 2026.

Goals: R. Gomes (34'), A. Undonque (39'), T. Silva (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande in Leiria.