Marinhense 0–0 Fátima: Result & Stats

Marinhense

FT

0 – 0

Fátima

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Marinhense63%

×Draw27%

Fátima11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinhenseExpected goals in this matchFátima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.41

Marinhense

1.42

Fátima

0.41

Marinhense creates 246% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.00

0.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Marinhense

1.33

Fátima

0.00

allows per match

Marinhense

0.83

Fátima

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par

Fátima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Fátima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw

89%

Marinhense or Fátima

73%

Draw or Fátima

37%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+

32%

Fátima wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals

76%

Marinhense 2+ goals

41%

Marinhense 3+ goals

17%

Fátima 1+ goals

34%

Fátima 2+ goals

6%

Fátima 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)

86%

Fátima (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Fátima away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 1.33 + Fátima defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fátima attack 0.00 + Marinhense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Marinhense scores more

63%

level

27%

Fátima scores more

11%

Marinhense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff