Marinhense 1–1 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Marinhense

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cova De Piedade

11/21/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marinhense17%

×Draw21%

Cova De Piedade62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinhenseExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.08

Marinhense

1.00

Cova De Piedade

2.08

Cova De Piedade creates 108% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

3.33

0.83

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Marinhense

1.33

Cova De Piedade

3.33

allows per match

Marinhense

0.83

Cova De Piedade

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marinhense+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marinhense ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Marinhense or draw

38%

Marinhense or Cova De Piedade

79%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

83%

Winning margin

Marinhense wins by 2+

6%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Marinhense 1+ goals

63%

Marinhense 2+ goals

26%

Marinhense 3+ goals

8%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

87%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

61%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Marinhense (draw refunded)

22%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marinhense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marinhense attack 1.33 + Cova De Piedade defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cova De Piedade attack 3.33 + Marinhense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Marinhense scores more

17%

level

21%

Cova De Piedade scores more

62%

Cova De Piedade at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cova De Piedade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff