Maringá 1–1 Caldense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maringá

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Caldense

Lucão 20'

João Vitor 51'

4/22/2018

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Regional Willie Davids (Maringá, Paraná)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Maringá51%

×Draw26%

Caldense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaringáExpected goals in this matchCaldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.91

Maringá

1.52

Caldense

0.91

Maringá creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.14

0.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Maringá

1.44

Caldense

1.14

allows per match

Maringá

0.67

Caldense

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maringá+0.00on par

Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maringá ↓

Caldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maringá or draw

77%

Maringá or Caldense

74%

Draw or Caldense

49%

Winning margin

Maringá wins by 2+

26%

Caldense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Maringá 1+ goals

78%

Maringá 2+ goals

45%

Maringá 3+ goals

20%

Caldense 1+ goals

60%

Caldense 2+ goals

23%

Caldense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Maringá (draw refunded)

69%

Caldense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maringá at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Caldense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maringá attack 1.44 + Caldense defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Caldense attack 1.14 + Maringá defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maringá scores more

51%

level

26%

Caldense scores more

23%

Maringá at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maringá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

48'

51'

57'

62'

Michel← Matheus

67'

Vitinho← Lucão

82'

Pedro Filho← João Vitor

86'

Dandan← Paulinho Moccelin

Maringá

Caldense

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lucão

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

57'▲Bruno Batata←▼Careca

67'▲Vitinho←▼Lucão

86'▲Dandan←▼Paulinho Moccelin

Maringá substitutes

BatataVitinhoDandanEdnaldoCostaEvertonFabricioPedroSerratoMohamadValdemarOliveira

Manager: Johnatan

48'▲Igor Badio←▼Potita

62'▲Michel←▼Matheus

82'▲Pedro Filho←▼João Vitor

Caldense substitutes

BadioMichelFilhoFernandoTonini