Maringá 0–2 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie C

Maringá

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brusque

Guilherme Pira 63'

Diego Mathias 45' (pen)

7/14/2025

Serie C · Round 12Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Maringá41%

×Draw26%

Brusque33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaringáExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.23

Maringá

1.41

Brusque

1.23

Maringá creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.56

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Maringá

1.56

Brusque

1.15

allows per match

Maringá

1.31

Brusque

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maringá+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maringá ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maringá or draw

67%

Maringá or Brusque

74%

Draw or Brusque

59%

Winning margin

Maringá wins by 2+

19%

Brusque wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maringá 1+ goals

76%

Maringá 2+ goals

41%

Maringá 3+ goals

17%

Brusque 1+ goals

71%

Brusque 2+ goals

35%

Brusque 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maringá (draw refunded)

56%

Brusque (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maringá at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maringá attack 1.56 + Brusque defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Brusque attack 1.15 + Maringá defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maringá scores more

41%

level

26%

Brusque scores more

33%

Maringá at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maringá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Matheus Nogueira

36'

Alex Ruan

45'

Diego MathiasPenalty

57'

Robertinho← Cristovam

57'

Danielzinho← Vinicius Amaral

58'

61'

Alex Paulino

63'

Guilherme Pira

66'

Ibson← Evanderson

66'

Rai Natalino← Edison Negueba

68'

Bernardo← Alex Paulino

68'

Luizao← Joao Veras

70'

Thiago Freitas← Mateus Pivo

74'

Luizao

76'

78'

80'

82'

90+4'

90+4'

Maringá

Brusque

1

16

4

2

30

15

▼

Paulino

66

Ruan

23

⚽

▼

Pira

27

⚽

Mathias

97

▼

Pivo

19

▼

1

13

4

23

2

▼

Cristovam

5

▼

Evanderso

33

▼

Rhuan

18

Vitor

36

▼

Amaral

19

Rodrigues

7

▼

Negueba

Manager: Jorge Castilho

57'▲Robertinho←▼Cristovam

57'▲Danielzinho←▼Vinicius Amaral

66'▲Ibson←▼Evanderson

66'▲Rai Natalino←▼Edison Negueba

80'▲Y. Masukake←▼Rhuan

Maringá substitutes

25Neto6Felix11Robertinho27Ibson29Natalino30Danielzinho32Tavares37Masukake40Caio

Manager: Filipe Gouveia

68'▲Bernardo←▼Alex Paulino

68'▲Luizao←▼Joao Veras

70'▲Thiago Freitas←▼Mateus Pivo

78'▲Neto←▼Guilherme Pira

Brusque substitutes

32Moura50Bernardo48Gomes17Clinton77Neto11Luizao91Luizinho28Ribeiro10Robinho29Freitas18Thomaz

Serie C: Maringá 0–2 Brusque

Brusque beat Maringá 2-0 in Serie C on July 14, 2025.

Goals: Diego Mathias (45' pen), Guilherme Pira (63').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.

Maringá vs Brusque — Serie C 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Maringá 0–2 Brusque