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Marines vs Vision — National Soccer League 2019

Marines
Marines
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vision
Vision
5/10/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 27Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marines54%
×Draw25%
Vision21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines
1.60
Vision
0.90

Marines creates 78% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marines
1.40
Vision
0.67

allows per match

Marines
1.13
Vision
1.80

finishing

Marines+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Marines or draw
79%
Marines or Vision
75%
Draw or Vision
46%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+
29%
Vision wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals
80%
Marines 2+ goals
47%
Marines 3+ goals
22%
Vision 1+ goals
59%
Vision 2+ goals
23%
Vision 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)
72%
Vision (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Vision away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Vision defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vision attack 0.67 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marines scores more
54%
level
25%
Vision scores more
21%

Marines at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Marines 2–1 Vision

Marines beat Vision 2-1 in National Soccer League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.