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Marines vs Rwamagana City — National Soccer League 2019

Marines
Marines
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Rwamagana City
Rwamagana City
2/5/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 18Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marines49%
×Draw27%
Rwamagana City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines
1.42
Rwamagana City
0.91

Marines creates 56% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

creates per match

Marines
1.40
Rwamagana City
0.69

allows per match

Marines
1.13
Rwamagana City
1.44

finishing

Marines+0.00on par
Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Rwamagana City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marines or draw
76%
Marines or Rwamagana City
73%
Draw or Rwamagana City
51%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+
24%
Rwamagana City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals
76%
Marines 2+ goals
41%
Marines 3+ goals
17%
Rwamagana City 1+ goals
60%
Rwamagana City 2+ goals
23%
Rwamagana City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)
67%
Rwamagana City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marines scores more
49%
level
27%
Rwamagana City scores more
24%

Marines at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Marines 3–2 Rwamagana City

Marines beat Rwamagana City 3-2 in National Soccer League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.