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Marines vs Rayon Sports — National Soccer League 2019

Marines
Marines
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
4/5/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 23Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Marines36%
×Draw28%
Rayon Sports37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines
1.17
Rayon Sports
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Marines
1.40
Rayon Sports
1.24

allows per match

Marines
1.13
Rayon Sports
0.93

finishing

Marines+0.00on par
Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Rayon Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marines or draw
63%
Marines or Rayon Sports
72%
Draw or Rayon Sports
64%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+
15%
Rayon Sports wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals
69%
Marines 2+ goals
33%
Marines 3+ goals
11%
Rayon Sports 1+ goals
70%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
33%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)
49%
Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Rayon Sports away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Rayon Sports defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rayon Sports attack 1.24 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marines scores more
36%
level
28%
Rayon Sports scores more
37%

Rayon Sports at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marines vs Rayon Sports

Marines and Rayon Sports drew 2-2 in National Soccer League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.