Marines 1–1 Mukura: Result & Stats

Marines

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mukura

1/21/2024

National Soccer League · Round 17Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Marines41%

×Draw28%

Mukura31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinesExpected goals in this matchMukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Marines

1.28

Mukura

1.08

Marines creates 19% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 96 away

1.40

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Marines

1.40

Mukura

1.03

allows per match

Marines

1.13

Mukura

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marines+0.00on par

Mukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Mukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marines or draw

69%

Marines or Mukura

72%

Draw or Mukura

59%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+

18%

Mukura wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals

72%

Marines 2+ goals

37%

Marines 3+ goals

14%

Mukura 1+ goals

66%

Mukura 2+ goals

29%

Mukura 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)

57%

Mukura (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Mukura away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Mukura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mukura attack 1.03 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Marines scores more

41%

level

28%

Mukura scores more

31%

Marines at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff