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Marines vs Gasogi United — National Soccer League 2019

Marines
Marines
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gasogi United
Gasogi United
5/1/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Marines43%
×Draw28%
Gasogi United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines
1.30
Gasogi United
1.03

Marines creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Marines
1.40
Gasogi United
0.93

allows per match

Marines
1.13
Gasogi United
1.21

finishing

Marines+0.00on par
Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Gasogi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marines or draw
71%
Marines or Gasogi United
72%
Draw or Gasogi United
57%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+
19%
Gasogi United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals
73%
Marines 2+ goals
37%
Marines 3+ goals
14%
Gasogi United 1+ goals
64%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
28%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)
59%
Gasogi United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marines scores more
43%
level
28%
Gasogi United scores more
29%

Marines at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marines vs Gasogi United

Marines and Gasogi United drew 2-2 in National Soccer League on May 1, 2026.