Marines 2–1 Etoile de l'Est: Result & Stats

Marines

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Etoile de l'Est

12/28/2021

National Soccer League · Round 11Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marines52%

×Draw26%

Etoile de l'Est22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinesExpected goals in this matchEtoile de l'Est

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.91

Marines

1.53

Etoile de l'Est

0.91

Marines creates 68% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

0.70

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Marines

1.40

Etoile de l'Est

0.70

allows per match

Marines

1.13

Etoile de l'Est

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marines+0.00on par

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Etoile de l'Est →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marines or draw

78%

Marines or Etoile de l'Est

74%

Draw or Etoile de l'Est

48%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+

27%

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals

78%

Marines 2+ goals

45%

Marines 3+ goals

20%

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

60%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

23%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)

70%

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marines scores more

52%

level

26%

Etoile de l'Est scores more

22%

Marines at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marines vs Etoile de l'Est

Marines beat Etoile de l'Est 2-1 in National Soccer League on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.

Marines vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Marines vs Etoile de l'Est