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Marines Eureka vs Suphanburi — FA Cup 2018

Marines Eureka
Marines Eureka
FT
1 – 4
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
11/8/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marines Eureka15%
×Draw16%
Suphanburi70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines Eureka
1.33
Suphanburi
2.95

Suphanburi creates 122% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Marines Eureka
1.00
Suphanburi
2.56

allows per match

Marines Eureka
3.33
Suphanburi
1.67

finishing

Marines Eureka+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines Eureka ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Marines Eureka or draw
30%
Marines Eureka or Suphanburi
84%
Draw or Suphanburi
85%

Winning margin

Marines Eureka wins by 2+
6%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Marines Eureka 1+ goals
74%
Marines Eureka 2+ goals
38%
Marines Eureka 3+ goals
15%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
95%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
79%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Marines Eureka (draw refunded)
18%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines Eureka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines Eureka attack 1.00 + Suphanburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Suphanburi attack 2.56 + Marines Eureka defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Marines Eureka scores more
15%
level
16%
Suphanburi scores more
70%

Suphanburi at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Marines Eureka 1–4 Suphanburi

Suphanburi beat Marines Eureka 4-1 in FA Cup on November 8, 2020.