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Marines Eureka vs Mahasarakham United — FA Cup 2018

Marines Eureka
Marines Eureka
FT
2 – 3
Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
10/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundSattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marines Eureka15%
×Draw18%
Mahasarakham United67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines Eureka
1.00
Mahasarakham United
2.33

Mahasarakham United creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Marines Eureka
1.00
Mahasarakham United
1.33

allows per match

Marines Eureka
3.33
Mahasarakham United
1.00

finishing

Marines Eureka+0.00on par
Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines Eureka ↓

Mahasarakham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Marines Eureka or draw
33%
Marines Eureka or Mahasarakham United
82%
Draw or Mahasarakham United
85%

Winning margin

Marines Eureka wins by 2+
5%
Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Marines Eureka 1+ goals
63%
Marines Eureka 2+ goals
26%
Marines Eureka 3+ goals
8%
Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
90%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
67%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Marines Eureka (draw refunded)
18%
Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines Eureka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines Eureka attack 1.00 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mahasarakham United attack 1.33 + Marines Eureka defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Marines Eureka scores more
15%
level
18%
Mahasarakham United scores more
67%

Mahasarakham United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Marines Eureka 2–3 Mahasarakham United

Mahasarakham United beat Marines Eureka 3-2 in FA Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.