Marineros de Puntarenas 1–1 Quepos Cambute

Marineros de Puntarenas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quepos Cambute

3/3/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 11Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas44%

×Draw23%

Quepos Cambute32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marineros de PuntarenasExpected goals in this matchQuepos Cambute

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.43

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.71

Quepos Cambute

1.43

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

1.62

creates per match

1.59

1.27

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.62

Quepos Cambute

1.59

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas

1.27

Quepos Cambute

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

Quepos Cambute →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw

68%

Marineros de Puntarenas or Quepos Cambute

77%

Draw or Quepos Cambute

56%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+

23%

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals

82%

Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals

51%

Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals

24%

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

76%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

42%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)

58%

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more

44%

level

23%

Quepos Cambute scores more

32%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff