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Marineros de Puntarenas vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenasadvanced
FT
3 – 1
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
11/14/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas54%
×Draw23%
Puerto Golfito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.81
Puerto Golfito
1.09

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 84 away

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.62
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.27
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw
77%
Marineros de Puntarenas or Puerto Golfito
77%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
46%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
30%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
84%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
54%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
27%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
66%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
30%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
70%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.81

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
54%
level
23%
Puerto Golfito scores more
23%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marineros de Puntarenas 3 – 1 Puerto Golfito

Marineros de Puntarenas beat Puerto Golfito 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.