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Marin vs Golden State Force — USL League Two 2018

Marin
Marin
FT
3 – 0
Golden State Force
Golden State Force
6/12/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 34San Rafael High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Marin44%
×Draw23%
Golden State Force33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marin
1.78
Golden State Force
1.50

Marin creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Marin
1.70
Golden State Force
0.86

allows per match

Marin
2.15
Golden State Force
1.86

finishing

Marin+0.00on par
Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marin ↓

Golden State Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marin or draw
67%
Marin or Golden State Force
77%
Draw or Golden State Force
56%

Winning margin

Marin wins by 2+
24%
Golden State Force wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marin 1+ goals
83%
Marin 2+ goals
53%
Marin 3+ goals
26%
Golden State Force 1+ goals
78%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
44%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marin (draw refunded)
58%
Golden State Force (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marin at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marin attack 1.70 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.78

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + Marin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marin scores more
44%
level
23%
Golden State Force scores more
33%

Marin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Marin 3–0 Golden State Force

Marin beat Golden State Force 3-0 in USL League Two on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at San Rafael High School in San Rafael, California.