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Marin vs Central Valley Fuego II — USL League Two 2026

Marin
Marin
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
7/9/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 64San Rafael High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Marin63%
×Draw18%
Central Valley Fuego II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marin
2.52
Central Valley Fuego II
1.32

Marin creates 91% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

creates per match

Marin
1.70
Central Valley Fuego II
0.50

allows per match

Marin
2.15
Central Valley Fuego II
3.33

finishing

Marin+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marin ↓

Central Valley Fuego II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Marin or draw
81%
Marin or Central Valley Fuego II
82%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego II
37%

Winning margin

Marin wins by 2+
42%
Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marin 1+ goals
92%
Marin 2+ goals
71%
Marin 3+ goals
45%
Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
73%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
38%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Marin (draw refunded)
77%
Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marin at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

Central Valley Fuego II away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marin attack 1.70 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Central Valley Fuego II attack 0.50 + Marin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Marin scores more
63%
level
18%
Central Valley Fuego II scores more
19%

Marin at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Marin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Marin 6 – 1 Central Valley Fuego II

Marin beat Central Valley Fuego II 6-1 in USL League Two on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at San Rafael High School in San Rafael, California.