Marimoo 1–2 Team Rhino: Result & Stats | GFA League

Marimoo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Team Rhino

5/7/2023

GFA League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Marimoo31%

×Draw36%

Team Rhino32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarimooExpected goals in this matchTeam Rhino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

0.77

Marimoo

0.75

Team Rhino

0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

0.53

creates per match

0.84

0.71

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Marimoo

0.53

Team Rhino

0.84

allows per match

Marimoo

0.71

Team Rhino

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par

Team Rhino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Team Rhino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–117%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw

68%

Marimoo or Team Rhino

64%

Draw or Team Rhino

69%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+

10%

Team Rhino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals

53%

Marimoo 2+ goals

17%

Marimoo 3+ goals

4%

Team Rhino 1+ goals

54%

Team Rhino 2+ goals

18%

Team Rhino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)

49%

Team Rhino (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Team Rhino away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Team Rhino defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.75

Team Rhino attack 0.84 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Marimoo scores more

31%

level

36%

Team Rhino scores more

32%

Team Rhino at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Team Rhino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff