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Marimoo vs Steve Biko — GFA League 2020

Marimoo
Marimoo
FT
1 – 2
Steve Biko
Steve Biko
4/7/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Marimoo30%
×Draw37%
Steve Biko33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marimoo
0.73
Steve Biko
0.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

Marimoo
0.53
Steve Biko
0.86

allows per match

Marimoo
0.71
Steve Biko
0.92

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par
Steve Biko+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Steve Biko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw
67%
Marimoo or Steve Biko
63%
Draw or Steve Biko
70%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+
9%
Steve Biko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals
52%
Marimoo 2+ goals
17%
Marimoo 3+ goals
4%
Steve Biko 1+ goals
54%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
18%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)
48%
Steve Biko (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Steve Biko away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.92 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Steve Biko defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.73

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Marimoo scores more
30%
level
37%
Steve Biko scores more
33%

Steve Biko at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Marimoo 1–2 Steve Biko

Steve Biko beat Marimoo 2-1 in GFA League on April 7, 2024.