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Marimoo vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

Marimoo
Marimoo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
5/17/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Marimoo23%
×Draw36%
Real de Banjul42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marimoo
0.60
Real de Banjul
0.93

Real de Banjul creates 55% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Marimoo
0.53
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

Marimoo
0.71
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–120%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw
58%
Marimoo or Real de Banjul
64%
Draw or Real de Banjul
77%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+
6%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals
45%
Marimoo 2+ goals
12%
Marimoo 3+ goals
2%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
61%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
24%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)
35%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marimoo scores more
23%
level
36%
Real de Banjul scores more
42%

Real de Banjul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marimoo vs Real de Banjul

Marimoo and Real de Banjul drew 1-1 in GFA League on May 17, 2025.