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Marimoo vs Milan — GFA League 2020

Marimoo
Marimoo
FT
0 – 0
Milan
Milan
2/14/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Marimoo33%
×Draw37%
Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marimoo
0.77
Milan
0.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

Marimoo
0.53
Milan
0.77

allows per match

Marimoo
0.71
Milan
1.00

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par
Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–116%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw
69%
Marimoo or Milan
63%
Draw or Milan
67%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+
10%
Milan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals
54%
Marimoo 2+ goals
18%
Marimoo 3+ goals
4%
Milan 1+ goals
52%
Milan 2+ goals
17%
Milan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)
51%
Milan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Milan away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Milan attack 0.77 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Marimoo scores more
33%
level
37%
Milan scores more
31%

Marimoo at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Marimoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Marimoo 0–0 Milan

Marimoo and Milan drew 0-0 in GFA League on February 14, 2021.