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Marimoo vs GPA — GFA League 2020

Marimoo
Marimoo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GPA
GPA
12/20/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Marimoo30%
×Draw36%
GPA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marimoo
0.73
GPA
0.80

GPA creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

Marimoo
0.53
GPA
0.89

allows per match

Marimoo
0.71
GPA
0.93

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par
GPA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

GPA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw
66%
Marimoo or GPA
64%
Draw or GPA
70%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+
9%
GPA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals
52%
Marimoo 2+ goals
17%
Marimoo 3+ goals
4%
GPA 1+ goals
55%
GPA 2+ goals
19%
GPA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)
47%
GPA (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

GPA away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + GPA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

GPA attack 0.89 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Marimoo scores more
30%
level
36%
GPA scores more
34%

GPA at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Marimoo 0–1 GPA

GPA beat Marimoo 1-0 in GFA League on December 20, 2021.