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Marimoo vs Falcons — GFA League 2020

Marimoo
Marimoo
FT
0 – 0
Falcons
Falcons
1/26/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Marimoo28%
×Draw34%
Falcons38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marimoo
0.76
Falcons
0.93

Falcons creates 22% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

creates per match

Marimoo
0.53
Falcons
1.15

allows per match

Marimoo
0.71
Falcons
0.98

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw
62%
Marimoo or Falcons
66%
Draw or Falcons
72%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+
9%
Falcons wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals
53%
Marimoo 2+ goals
18%
Marimoo 3+ goals
4%
Falcons 1+ goals
61%
Falcons 2+ goals
24%
Falcons 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)
43%
Falcons (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Falcons away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Falcons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.76

Falcons attack 1.15 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Marimoo scores more
28%
level
34%
Falcons scores more
38%

Falcons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marimoo vs Falcons

Marimoo and Falcons drew 0-0 in GFA League on January 26, 2024.