Marimoo 0–0 Dutch Lions: Result & Stats

Marimoo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dutch Lions

2/8/2025

GFA League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marimoo37%

×Draw35%

Dutch Lions27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarimooExpected goals in this matchDutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.70

Marimoo

0.88

Dutch Lions

0.70

Marimoo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 30 away

0.53

creates per match

0.70

0.71

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Marimoo

0.53

Dutch Lions

0.70

allows per match

Marimoo

0.71

Dutch Lions

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marimoo+0.00on par

Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marimoo ↓

Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Marimoo or draw

73%

Marimoo or Dutch Lions

65%

Draw or Dutch Lions

63%

Winning margin

Marimoo wins by 2+

13%

Dutch Lions wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Marimoo 1+ goals

59%

Marimoo 2+ goals

22%

Marimoo 3+ goals

6%

Dutch Lions 1+ goals

50%

Dutch Lions 2+ goals

16%

Dutch Lions 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Marimoo (draw refunded)

58%

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marimoo at home — creates 0.53, concedes 0.71 · 73 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marimoo attack 0.53 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.88

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Marimoo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marimoo scores more

37%

level

35%

Dutch Lions scores more

27%

Marimoo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marimoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff