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Marília U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Marília U20
Marília U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
V. Santos 54', 44'
Jhow 35'
7/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Marília U2042%
×Draw23%
Referencia U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marília U20
1.75
Referencia U20
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

creates per match

Marília U20
1.63
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

Marília U20
1.75
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

Marília U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marília U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Marília U20 or draw
65%
Marília U20 or Referencia U20
77%
Draw or Referencia U20
58%

Winning margin

Marília U20 wins by 2+
22%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Marília U20 1+ goals
83%
Marília U20 2+ goals
52%
Marília U20 3+ goals
25%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
80%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
47%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Marília U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marília U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Marília U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Marília U20 scores more
42%
level
23%
Referencia U20 scores more
35%

Marília U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Jhow
44'
V. Santos
54'
V. Santos
69'
90+4'
M. Gueiros

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Marília U20 2–1 Referencia U20

Marília U20 beat Referencia U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 19, 2024.

Goals: Jhow (35'), V. Santos (44', 54').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.