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Mariehamn vs KäPa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KäPa
KäPa
3/14/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mariehamn46%
×Draw25%
KäPa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.54
KäPa
1.17

Mariehamn creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.83
KäPa
1.50

allows per match

Mariehamn
0.83
KäPa
1.25

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
71%
Mariehamn or KäPa
75%
Draw or KäPa
54%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
23%
KäPa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
79%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
45%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
20%
KäPa 1+ goals
69%
KäPa 2+ goals
33%
KäPa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
61%
KäPa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.83 + KäPa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

KäPa attack 1.50 + Mariehamn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mariehamn scores more
46%
level
25%
KäPa scores more
29%

Mariehamn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Mariehamn
KäPa
Gary Williams
Manager: Gary Williams
L. Lummepuro
Manager: L. Lummepuro

Match Recap: Mariehamn vs KäPa

Mariehamn beat KäPa 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Mariehamn.