Mariehamn 2–5 Gnistan: Result & Stats

Mariehamn

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Gnistan

M. Olawale 71'

E. Okereke 51'

R. Gnanou 68', 15'

J. Latonen 62' (pen)

A. Atarah 53'

E. Arko-Mensah 11'

8/9/2025

Veikkausliiga · Round 19Wiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mariehamn39%

×Draw24%

Gnistan37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MariehamnExpected goals in this matchGnistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.50

Mariehamn

1.53

Gnistan

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

1.39

1.60

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mariehamn

1.24

Gnistan

1.39

allows per match

Mariehamn

1.60

Gnistan

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Gnistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw

63%

Mariehamn or Gnistan

76%

Draw or Gnistan

61%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+

19%

Gnistan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals

78%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

45%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

20%

Gnistan 1+ goals

78%

Gnistan 2+ goals

44%

Gnistan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

51%

Gnistan (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gnistan attack 1.39 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mariehamn scores more

39%

level

24%

Gnistan scores more

37%

Mariehamn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Ritari

Gnistan · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

E. Arko-Mensah↳ S. Heiskanen

15'

31'

40'

51'

53'

62'

J. LatonenPenalty

63'

A. Muskwe← S. Dahlstrom

63'

N. Nurmi← E. Patut

63'

M. Fonsell← P. Lindgren

64'

O. Gunes← A. Kabashi

68'

R. Gnanou↳ S. Heiskanen

71'

M. Olawale↳ A. Muskwe

73'

R. Eremenko← A. Atarah

78'

L. von Hellens← O. Pettersson

78'

J. Raitala← S. Heiskanen

78'

82'

85'

87'

90+2'

A. Lundberg← K. Adedoyin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MariehamnGnistan

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots14

2.54Expected Goals (xG)2.89

6Corners9

10Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target8

2Off Target3

5Blocked3

6Inside Box12

6Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

321Total Passes339

244Accurate Passes276

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Mariehamn vs Gnistan

Gnistan beat Mariehamn 5-2 in Veikkausliiga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Arko-Mensah (11'), R. Gnanou (15', 68'), E. Okereke (51'), A. Atarah (53'), J. Latonen (62' pen), M. Olawale (71').

Mariehamn controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Mariehamn.

Mariehamn vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mariehamn vs Gnistan