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Mariehamn vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
5/26/2024VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 8Wiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mariehamn39%
×Draw24%
Gnistan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.53
Gnistan
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.24
Gnistan
1.39

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.60
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
63%
Mariehamn or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
61%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
19%
Gnistan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
78%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
45%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
20%
Gnistan 1+ goals
78%
Gnistan 2+ goals
44%
Gnistan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
51%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gnistan attack 1.39 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mariehamn scores more
39%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
37%

Mariehamn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mariehamn vs Gnistan

Mariehamn and Gnistan drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Åland.