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Maribor vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Maribor
Maribor
CANC
14:30
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
1/28/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maribor42%
×Draw22%
Shakhtar Donetsk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maribor
1.87
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Maribor
3.07
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.00

allows per match

Maribor
1.43
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.67

finishing

Maribor+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maribor ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Maribor or draw
64%
Maribor or Shakhtar Donetsk
78%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
58%

Winning margin

Maribor wins by 2+
23%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maribor 1+ goals
85%
Maribor 2+ goals
56%
Maribor 3+ goals
29%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
82%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
51%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Maribor (draw refunded)
54%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maribor at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maribor attack 3.07 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.00 + Maribor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maribor scores more
42%
level
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
36%

Maribor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maribor face Shakhtar Donetsk (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Maribor hosting Shakhtar Donetsk. Match starts January 28, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Maribor host Shakhtar Donetsk at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.