Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maribor vs Birkirkara — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Maribor
Maribor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
7/13/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundLjudski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maribor46%
×Draw31%
Birkirkara23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maribor
1.14
Birkirkara
0.70

Maribor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maribor
0.78
Birkirkara
0.50

allows per match

Maribor
0.89
Birkirkara
1.50

finishing

Maribor+0.00on par
Birkirkara+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maribor ↓

Birkirkara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Maribor or draw
77%
Maribor or Birkirkara
69%
Draw or Birkirkara
54%

Winning margin

Maribor wins by 2+
20%
Birkirkara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maribor 1+ goals
68%
Maribor 2+ goals
32%
Maribor 3+ goals
11%
Birkirkara 1+ goals
50%
Birkirkara 2+ goals
16%
Birkirkara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maribor (draw refunded)
67%
Birkirkara (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maribor at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Birkirkara away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maribor attack 0.78 + Birkirkara defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Birkirkara attack 0.50 + Maribor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maribor scores more
46%
level
31%
Birkirkara scores more
23%

Maribor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Maribor 1–1 Birkirkara

Maribor and Birkirkara drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 13, 2023.

The match was played at Ljudski vrt in Maribor.