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Mariánské Lázně vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
PST
15:00
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 30Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mariánské Lázně52%
×Draw23%
Sokol Čížová25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
1.77
Sokol Čížová
1.15

Mariánské Lázně creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
75%
Mariánské Lázně or Sokol Čížová
77%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
48%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
29%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
83%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
53%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
32%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
68%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
52%
level
23%
Sokol Čížová scores more
25%

Mariánské Lázně at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariánské Lázně face Sokol Čížová (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Mariánské Lázně hosting Sokol Čížová. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mariánské Lázně host Sokol Čížová at Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.