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Mariánské Lázně vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
4/20/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mariánské Lázně58%
×Draw21%
Slavoj Mýto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
2.09
Slavoj Mýto
1.20

Mariánské Lázně creates 74% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
79%
Mariánské Lázně or Slavoj Mýto
79%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
42%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
35%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
88%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
62%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
34%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
70%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
34%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
73%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.09

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
58%
level
21%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
21%

Mariánské Lázně at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariánské Lázně 2 – 2 Slavoj Mýto

Mariánské Lázně and Slavoj Mýto drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria in Mariánské Lázně.