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Mariánské Lázně vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
PST
15:00
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 22Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mariánské Lázně64%
×Draw18%
Český lev - Union Beroun17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
2.41
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.17

Mariánské Lázně creates 106% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 25 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
83%
Mariánské Lázně or Český lev - Union Beroun
82%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
36%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
42%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
91%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
69%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
43%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
69%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
33%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
79%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
64%
level
18%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
17%

Mariánské Lázně at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariánské Lázně vs Český lev - Union Beroun — Match Preview

Mariánské Lázně face Český lev - Union Beroun on April 19, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mariánské Lázně host Český lev - Union Beroun at Stadion FC Viktoria (Mariánské Lázně).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.