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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
FT
1 – 4
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
9/11/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 7Fotbalové hřiště Beroun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun39%
×Draw22%
Mariánské Lázně39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.77
Mariánské Lázně
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 55 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
61%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Mariánské Lázně
78%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
61%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
20%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
83%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
53%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
26%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
83%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
53%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
50%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
39%
level
22%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
39%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Český lev - Union Beroun vs Mariánské Lázně

Mariánské Lázně beat Český lev - Union Beroun 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Beroun in Beroun.