Maria Saal vs Wolfsberg: Preview & Prediction

Maria Saal

CANC

21:00

Wolfsberg

4/18/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Maria Saal43%

×Draw21%

Wolfsberg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maria SaalExpected goals in this matchWolfsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.85

Maria Saal

2.04

Wolfsberg

1.85

Maria Saal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 84 away

1.83

creates per match

1.77

1.94

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Maria Saal

1.83

Wolfsberg

1.77

allows per match

Maria Saal

1.94

Wolfsberg

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Wolfsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw

64%

Maria Saal or Wolfsberg

79%

Draw or Wolfsberg

57%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+

24%

Wolfsberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals

87%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

60%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

33%

Wolfsberg 1+ goals

84%

Wolfsberg 2+ goals

55%

Wolfsberg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

55%

Wolfsberg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Wolfsberg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.04

Wolfsberg attack 1.77 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maria Saal scores more

43%

level

21%

Wolfsberg scores more

36%

Maria Saal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maria Saal host Wolfsberg

April 18, 2021: Maria Saal take on Wolfsberg in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Maria Saal host Wolfsberg at Sportplatz Maria Saal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Maria Saal vs Wolfsberg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Maria Saal host Wolfsberg