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Maria Saal vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Maria Saal
Maria Saal
CANC
15:45
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
5/20/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 26Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Maria Saal47%
×Draw22%
St. Michael Bleiburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maria Saal
1.93
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.55

Maria Saal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Maria Saal
1.83
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Maria Saal
1.94
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw
69%
Maria Saal or St. Michael Bleiburg
78%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
53%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+
26%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals
85%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
57%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
30%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
79%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
46%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)
60%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.93

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maria Saal scores more
47%
level
22%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
31%

Maria Saal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maria Saal vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Match Preview

Maria Saal face St. Michael Bleiburg on May 20, 2020 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Maria Saal host St. Michael Bleiburg at Sportplatz Maria Saal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.