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Maria Saal vs St. Andrä — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Maria Saal
Maria Saal
FT
2 – 0
St. Andrä
St. Andrä
10/9/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 13Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Maria Saal47%
×Draw21%
St. Andrä31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maria Saal
2.05
St. Andrä
1.64

Maria Saal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

creates per match

Maria Saal
1.83
St. Andrä
1.33

allows per match

Maria Saal
1.94
St. Andrä
2.27

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par
St. Andrä+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

St. Andrä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw
69%
Maria Saal or St. Andrä
79%
Draw or St. Andrä
53%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+
27%
St. Andrä wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals
87%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
61%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
33%
St. Andrä 1+ goals
81%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
49%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)
60%
St. Andrä (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

St. Andrä away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + St. Andrä defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.05

St. Andrä attack 1.33 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maria Saal scores more
47%
level
21%
St. Andrä scores more
31%

Maria Saal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maria Saal vs St. Andrä

Maria Saal beat St. Andrä 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Maria Saal in Maria Saal.