Maria Saal vs Köttmannsdorf: Preview & Prediction

Maria Saal

CANC

21:00

Köttmannsdorf

5/12/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 25Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Maria Saal44%

×Draw22%

Köttmannsdorf34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maria SaalExpected goals in this matchKöttmannsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.68

Maria Saal

1.91

Köttmannsdorf

1.68

Maria Saal creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 91 away

1.83

creates per match

1.42

1.94

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Maria Saal

1.83

Köttmannsdorf

1.42

allows per match

Maria Saal

1.94

Köttmannsdorf

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Köttmannsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw

66%

Maria Saal or Köttmannsdorf

78%

Draw or Köttmannsdorf

56%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+

24%

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals

85%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

57%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

30%

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals

81%

Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals

50%

Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

56%

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Köttmannsdorf away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.98 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.42 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maria Saal scores more

44%

level

22%

Köttmannsdorf scores more

34%

Maria Saal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maria Saal host Köttmannsdorf

May 12, 2021: Maria Saal take on Köttmannsdorf in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Maria Saal host Köttmannsdorf at Sportplatz Maria Saal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Maria Saal vs Köttmannsdorf — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Maria Saal host Köttmannsdorf