Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maria Saal vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Maria Saal
Maria Saal
FT
1 – 1
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
11/5/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Maria Saal44%
×Draw23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maria Saal
1.82
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.57

Maria Saal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

creates per match

Maria Saal
1.83
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

Maria Saal
1.94
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw
66%
Maria Saal or Feldkirchen Kärnten
77%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
56%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+
24%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals
84%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
54%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
27%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
79%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
46%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)
57%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maria Saal scores more
44%
level
23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
34%

Maria Saal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maria Saal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Maria Saal 1–1 Feldkirchen Kärnten

Maria Saal and Feldkirchen Kärnten drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Maria Saal in Maria Saal.