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Maria Saal vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Maria Saal
Maria Saal
CANC
21:00
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
5/2/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Maria Saal36%
×Draw21%
Dellach im Gailtal42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maria Saal
1.83
Dellach im Gailtal
1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 62 away

creates per match

Maria Saal
1.83
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

Maria Saal
1.94
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw
58%
Maria Saal or Dellach im Gailtal
79%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
64%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+
19%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals
84%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
54%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
28%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
86%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
59%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)
46%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maria Saal scores more
36%
level
21%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
42%

Dellach im Gailtal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maria Saal host Dellach im Gailtal

May 2, 2021: Maria Saal take on Dellach im Gailtal in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Maria Saal host Dellach im Gailtal at Sportplatz Maria Saal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.