Maria Saal 0–3 ASK Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

Maria Saal

FT

0 – 3

ASK Klagenfurt

5/13/2023

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 29Sportplatz Maria Saal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Maria Saal35%

×Draw22%

ASK Klagenfurt43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maria SaalExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.94

Maria Saal

1.72

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

ASK Klagenfurt creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

1.83

creates per match

1.94

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Maria Saal

1.83

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

Maria Saal

1.94

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maria Saal+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria Saal ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Maria Saal or draw

57%

Maria Saal or ASK Klagenfurt

78%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

65%

Winning margin

Maria Saal wins by 2+

17%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Maria Saal 1+ goals

82%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

51%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

25%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

86%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

58%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

44%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maria Saal at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.94 · 47 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maria Saal attack 1.83 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + Maria Saal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maria Saal scores more

35%

level

22%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

43%

ASK Klagenfurt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff