Maria da Fonte 1–2 Brito: Result & Stats

Maria da Fonte

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Brito

8/31/2025

Taça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsEstádio Moinhos Novos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maria da Fonte50%

×Draw22%

Brito28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maria da FonteExpected goals in this matchBrito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.40

Maria da Fonte

1.95

Brito

1.40

Maria da Fonte creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.30

creates per match

0.60

2.20

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Maria da Fonte

1.30

Brito

0.60

allows per match

Maria da Fonte

2.20

Brito

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maria da Fonte+0.00on par

Brito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maria da Fonte ↓

Brito →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Maria da Fonte or draw

72%

Maria da Fonte or Brito

78%

Draw or Brito

50%

Winning margin

Maria da Fonte wins by 2+

29%

Brito wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Maria da Fonte 1+ goals

86%

Maria da Fonte 2+ goals

58%

Maria da Fonte 3+ goals

31%

Brito 1+ goals

75%

Brito 2+ goals

41%

Brito 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Maria da Fonte (draw refunded)

64%

Brito (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maria da Fonte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Brito away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maria da Fonte attack 1.30 + Brito defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Brito attack 0.60 + Maria da Fonte defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Maria da Fonte scores more

50%

level

22%

Brito scores more

28%

Maria da Fonte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maria da Fonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff