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Margveti 2006 vs Algeti — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Margveti 2006
Margveti 2006
FT
2 – 1
Algeti
Algeti
5/27/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Margveti 200644%
×Draw23%
Algeti32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Margveti 2006
1.73
Algeti
1.44

Margveti 2006 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Margveti 2006
0.80
Algeti
0.67

allows per match

Margveti 2006
2.20
Algeti
2.67

finishing

Margveti 2006+0.00on par
Algeti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Margveti 2006 ↓

Algeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Margveti 2006 or draw
68%
Margveti 2006 or Algeti
77%
Draw or Algeti
56%

Winning margin

Margveti 2006 wins by 2+
23%
Algeti wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Margveti 2006 1+ goals
82%
Margveti 2006 2+ goals
52%
Margveti 2006 3+ goals
25%
Algeti 1+ goals
76%
Algeti 2+ goals
42%
Algeti 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Margveti 2006 (draw refunded)
58%
Algeti (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Margveti 2006 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Algeti away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Margveti 2006 attack 0.80 + Algeti defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Algeti attack 0.67 + Margveti 2006 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Margveti 2006 scores more
44%
level
23%
Algeti scores more
32%

Margveti 2006 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Margveti 2006 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Margveti 2006 2–1 Algeti

Margveti 2006 beat Algeti 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on May 27, 2022.