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Margarita FC vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

Margarita FC
Margarita FC
FT
2 – 1
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
10/6/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 16Ciudad Deportiva Nueva Esparta (Pampatar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Margarita FC49%
×Draw25%
CA Furrial26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Margarita FC
1.61
CA Furrial
1.10

Margarita FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Margarita FC
1.59
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

Margarita FC
1.29
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

Margarita FC+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Margarita FC ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Margarita FC or draw
74%
Margarita FC or CA Furrial
75%
Draw or CA Furrial
51%

Winning margin

Margarita FC wins by 2+
26%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Margarita FC 1+ goals
80%
Margarita FC 2+ goals
48%
Margarita FC 3+ goals
22%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
67%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
30%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Margarita FC (draw refunded)
65%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Margarita FC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Margarita FC attack 1.59 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + Margarita FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Margarita FC scores more
49%
level
25%
CA Furrial scores more
26%

Margarita FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Margarita FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Margarita FC 2–1 CA Furrial

Margarita FC beat CA Furrial 2-1 in Segunda División on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Nueva Esparta (Pampatar).