Marek 1–2 Yantra 2019: Result & Stats

Marek

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Yantra 2019

3/1/2026

Second League · Round 22Stadion Bonchuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Marek46%

×Draw29%

Yantra 201925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarekExpected goals in this matchYantra 2019

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Marek

1.25

Yantra 2019

0.83

Marek creates 51% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 100 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

0.71

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Marek

1.29

Yantra 2019

0.95

allows per match

Marek

0.71

Yantra 2019

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marek+0.00on par

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marek ↓

Yantra 2019 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Marek or draw

75%

Marek or Yantra 2019

71%

Draw or Yantra 2019

54%

Winning margin

Marek wins by 2+

21%

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Marek 1+ goals

71%

Marek 2+ goals

36%

Marek 3+ goals

13%

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

56%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

20%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marek (draw refunded)

65%

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 70 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marek attack 1.29 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Marek defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marek scores more

46%

level

29%

Yantra 2019 scores more

25%

Marek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff